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目的:将生存分析方法应用于肺结核病治愈率的动态描述及其影响因素分析。方法:以江苏省盐城市6个县登记治疗并实施全程督导管理的172例肺结核初治菌阳病人的3年随访资料为例,采用生存分析估计治愈率,用非参数的Cox比例风险回归模型对肺结核治愈率进行单因素和多因素分析,并对有统计学意义的影响因素尝试用Weibull分布的参数方法拟合治愈率曲线。结果:生存曲线给出不同时间点的治愈率,随着治疗时间的持续,肺结核病人的治愈率由低到高,最终接近100%;Cox回归模型显示肺结核病治愈率受多种因素影响,如吸烟、不同治疗方案及不同区县等。结论:生存分析方法适用于肺结核病等慢性传染病疗效指标的动态描述及其影响因素的分析。
OBJECTIVE: To describe the dynamic description of the cure rate of pulmonary tuberculosis by using the method of survival analysis and its influential factors. Methods: A case-control study was conducted in 172 cases of tuberculosis-positive bacillary-positive patients with tuberculosis registered in six counties in Yancheng City, Jiangsu Province. The survival rate was estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression model Univariate and multivariate analysis of the cure rate of tuberculosis, and trying statistically significant influencing factors to fit the cure rate curve with Weibull distribution parameter method. Results: The survival curve showed the cure rate at different time points. With the continuous treatment time, the cure rate of tuberculosis patients was from low to high, and finally close to 100%. Cox regression model showed that the cure rate of tuberculosis was affected by many factors such as Smoking, different treatment programs and different districts and counties. Conclusion: The method of survival analysis is suitable for the dynamic description of the efficacy index of chronic infectious pulmonary tuberculosis and its influencing factors.