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构建一个存在两个交通枢纽城市的城际物流模型,提出以相对人口规模系数来衡量城市间的产业转移规模,并由此导出流经枢纽城市的城际物流量方程,用以预测随着产业由中心城市向外围城市转移的进程中,产业转移路径对流经枢纽城市物流增长的长期影响,从理论上总结了三种不同产业转移路径下,流经枢纽城市的城际物流量的长期增长趋势。结合最近十年京津冀、长三角和珠三角三大城市群内的产业转移路径和物流发展数据,以北上广三个重要枢纽城市为例,对理论模型进行了实践检验。文章主要结论包括:(1)产业转移路径对交通枢纽城市的物流增长有长期影响,且城市人口规模越大,城际物流增长越稳定;(2)产业转移的路径不同,流经枢纽城市的城际物流需求增长趋势也各不相同;(3)因产业转移路径不同,北京市的交通枢纽地位将面临衰退,上海市的枢纽地位稳定,而广州市的枢纽地位还将继续增强。
Constructing an inter-city logistics model with two transportation hub cities, this paper proposes to measure the scale of industrial transfer between cities based on the relative population size coefficient and derive the inter-city logistics flow equation through the hub cities to predict the inter-city logistics flow with industry From the central city to the peripheral cities in the process of transfer, the industrial transfer path to the long-term impact on the logistics growth through the hub cities, theoretically summed up the long-term growth trend of inter-city logistics flows through the hub cities under three different industrial transfer routes . Combined with the industrial transfer path and logistics development data in the three major urban agglomerations of Beijing, Tianjin, the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta in the recent ten years, taking the three major hub cities in the north and Guangxi as an example, the theoretical model is tested in practice. The main conclusions of the article include: (1) The industrial transfer path has a long-term impact on the logistics growth in the transportation hub cities, and the larger the urban population, the more stable the inter-city logistics growth; (2) The different path of industrial transfer flows through the hub cities The growth trend of inter-city logistics demand is also different; (3) due to different industrial transfer paths, Beijing’s transportation hub will face a recession, Shanghai’s hub status is stable, and Guangzhou’s hub status will continue to increase.