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研究了南京市2007年3月～2008年12月住宅一级市场(新房交易市场)、二级市场(存量房交易市场)和三级市场(租赁市场)之间价格的关系。通过对这段时间内的三级市场价格数据进行波动幅度分析、平稳性分析、协整关系检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,得出了各数据序列的特性和序列间的数量关系。研究结果表明,南京市住宅三级市场、一级市场和二级市场的风险是逐渐降低的,三个住宅市场价格之间不存在长期稳定关系,但是滞后期数不同时,三个市场价格之间存在不同的因果关系,并且对以上实证检验的结果作出了解释。
Studied the relationship between the prices of residential primary market (new home exchange market), secondary market (stock room exchange market) and tertiary market (rental market) from March 2007 to December 2008 in Nanjing. Through the volatility analysis, the stability analysis, the co-integration test and the Granger causality test of the third-level market price data in this period of time, the characteristics of each data series and the quantitative relationship between the sequences are obtained. The results show that the risks of Nanjing’s residential tertiary market, primary market and secondary market are gradually reduced, and there is no long-term stable relationship between the prices of the three residential markets. However, when the number of lagging periods is different, the three market prices There are different causal relationships, and the above empirical test results are explained.