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在发电商报价古诺模型基础上,运用有限理性动态与自适应动态,建立了考虑滞后的电力报价动态模型,然后对动态模型的稳定域、倍岔、混沌等进行仿真分析;在此基础上,分别分析了滞后因子与不同报价动态对发电商的平均收益的影响,然后运用状态滞后反馈控制方法,对滞后报价动态模型进行了混沌控制分析;分析结果表明:1)引入滞后因子有利于报价系统的稳定,但并不一定能增加发电商的收益;2)在均衡状态下发电商获得最大的平均收益,在Nash均衡形成前,发电商宜采用自适应动态,但失稳后则宜采用有限理性动态;3)选择合适的控制参数,可维持报价系统Nash均衡的稳定,但若发电商仅考虑短期收益,则没有积极性去采用滞后控制策略。
On the basis of the Cournot model of generator quotation, the dynamic model of power quotation considering the lag is established by using the bounded rationality dynamics and the adaptive dynamics. Then, the dynamic domain stability model, the double bifurcation and the chaos are simulated and analyzed. On this basis , The influence of hysteresis factor and different quotation dynamics on the average return of generators is analyzed respectively. Then the state delay feedback control method is used to analyze the chaotic control of the dynamic model of hysteresis quotation. The analysis results show that: 1) The introduction of hysteresis factor favors quotation The stability of the system, but it may not necessarily increase the returns of generators. 2) In the equilibrium state, the maximum average return of generators is obtained. Before the formation of Nash equilibrium, generators should adopt adaptive dynamics, but after instability, Bounded rationality; 3) Choosing the appropriate control parameters can maintain the stability of the Nash equilibrium of the quotation system, but there is no incentive to adopt the hysteresis control strategy if the power producers only consider short-term gains.