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本文利用制造业企业数据并运用DEA方法测算了中国微观层面的企业产能利用率,并以市场集中和空间集聚为切入点实证检验了关于产能过剩的两类理论观点:投资潮涌和市场涌入导致市场分散和产能过剩的“发展阶段说”;地方政府竞相促进投资导致重复建设和产能过剩的“地方政府说”。测算结果显示,中国制造业企业的平均产能利用率不到70%且在研究期间内逐年下降。从内部看,主要是大企业与小企业之间的产能利用率差异较大,前者往往高出30个百分点,而行业、地区和所有制类型之间虽有差异但均在10个百分点以内。实证检验表明,市场集中度和企业规模、空间基尼系数和政府补贴各自与企业产能利用率均显著正相关,但对双方同时检验时后两者的显著性和系数很不稳定。这意味着市场过于分散、企业规模过小是全球金融危机前中国经济中出现产能过剩现象的主导因素,而地方政府的重复性产业建设则通过影响市场分散和企业规模发挥作用。换句话说,在导致市场分散、企业规模较小的投资潮涌和市场涌入的推动因素之中,由地方政府所主导的重复且分散于各地的同构性产业建设便是其中之一。
In this paper, we use manufacturing enterprise data and DEA method to measure the capacity utilization rate of enterprises in China. Based on the market concentration and spatial agglomeration, we empirically test two types of theoretical perspectives on overcapacity: the investment surge and the influx of markets The “stage of development” in which markets are dispersed and overcapacity says local governments are vying with each other to promote investment duplication and overcapacity. The calculation results show that the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese manufacturing enterprises is less than 70% and declined year by year during the study period. From an internal perspective, productivity utilization varies mainly between large and small enterprises, with the former often up by 30 percentage points, while the difference among industries, regions and ownership types is within 10 percentage points. Empirical tests show that market concentration and enterprise size, space Gini coefficient and government subsidies are significantly and positively correlated with enterprise production capacity utilization rate, but the significance and coefficient of the two companies are very unstable at the same time. This means that the market is too fragmented and the scale of the enterprises is too small to be the dominant factor in the overcapacity in the Chinese economy before the global financial crisis while the construction of the repetitive industries by local governments plays a role in influencing the fragmentation of the market and the size of the enterprises. In other words, among the drivers of market diversification, smaller-scale investment and the influx of markets, the construction of an isomorphic industry that is dominated by local governments and is repeated and scattered all over the place is one of them.