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保持物价稳定并以此促进经济增长是中央银行宏观调控政策终极目标。2008年11月以来,中央银行实施了适度宽松的货币政策,货币供应量大幅度增加。在积极的财政政策和适度宽松货币政策共同作用下,我国经济企稳回暖的迹象明显,但与此同时,社会各界对未来通胀风险表示了担忧。本文基于货币角度,通过分析我国历史经验数据,对货币供应量与CPI变动趋势及两者关系进行了分析,并对未来物价走势进行了预测。
Maintaining a stable price and thus promoting economic growth are the ultimate goals of the Central Bank’s macro-control policies. Since November 2008, the Central Bank has implemented a moderately easy monetary policy and the money supply has increased substantially. Under the joint action of proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, signs of stabilization and recovery of China’s economy are obvious. However, at the same time, all sectors of society have expressed concern about the future inflation risk. Based on the perspective of currency, this paper analyzes the historical data of our country, analyzes the trend of the money supply and CPI, and the relationship between the two, predicts the price trend in the future.