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为了探讨兰州城区大气污染对居民呼吸系统疾病日住院人数的影响,收集2004年1月1日—2007年10月31日兰州城区每日空气污染指数(API)、气象(日均气压、气温、气湿、风速和降水量)资料,以及同时段的居民呼吸系统疾病住院数据,选用广义相加模型(GAM)的Poisson回归,利用非参数平滑函数控制长期趋势、星期效应、气象因素的基础上,研究大气污染对居民呼吸系统疾病日住院人数的影响,并按性别、年龄和呼吸系统疾病类型进行分层分析。结果表明,研究当日API上升1个四分位间距(48个单位)时,当日总的呼吸系统疾病住院人数增加5.50%(95%CI 4.03%～6.99%),并且这种影响具有一定的滞后效应。男性在API上升滞后第1d RR值最高,为1.058 3(95%CI1.039 7～1.077 2),女性则在API上升当日RR值最高,除滞后第3 d和第4 d,其他滞后各天RR值均低于男性。API上升对16～64岁人群的影响只在当日和滞后第1 d有意义,对≤15岁者和≥65岁者有显著的滞后效应,以滞后第5 d和第4 d RR值最高,分别为1.063 6(95%CI 1.043 4～1.084 1)和1.047 6(95%CI 1.017 6～1.0786)。API上升当日肺炎和上呼吸道感染(URTI)患者日住院人数增幅最大,RR分别为1.059 5(1.040 7～1.078 7)和1.056 0(1.030 6～1.082 1),肺炎患者日住院人数滞后效应高于URTI。研究表明,大气污染可增加居民呼吸系统疾病住院人数,并对不同性别、年龄和呼吸系统疾病类型的影响存在差异。
In order to investigate the influence of urban air pollution in Lanzhou city on the number of inhabitants’ respiratory diseases day in hospital, the daily air pollution index (API), meteorology (daily average air pressure, temperature, Air humidity, wind speed and precipitation), as well as resident respiratory disease data in the same period, using generalized additive model (GAM) Poisson regression, using nonparametric smoothing function to control long-term trend, the week effect and meteorological factors To study the impact of air pollution on the number of inhabitants of the respiratory system in hospital days, stratified by sex, age and type of respiratory diseases. The results showed that on the day of the study, when the API increased by 1 quartile (48 units), the total number of hospital admissions for respiratory diseases increased by 5.50% (95% CI 4.03% -6.99%) on that day, and this effect had some lag effect. The highest RR of males on the 1st day of API rise lag was 1.0583 (95% CI 1.039 7 ~ 1.077 2), and the highest RR on the day of API rise except the 3rd and 4th day of lag RR values were lower than men. The effects of API increase on 16-16 age group only made sense on the 1st and the 1st day of lag, lagged effect on ≤15 and ≥65 years, lagged the highest RR on the 5th and 4th day, 1.063 6 (95% CI 1.043 4 ~ 1.084 1) and 1.047 6 (95% CI 1.017 6 ~ 1.0786, respectively). The highest number of hospitalizations for pneumonia and upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) on the day of API rise was 1.059 5 (1.040 7 to 1.078 7) and 1.056 0 (1.030 6 to 1.082 1), respectively. The lagged number of hospitalizations for pneumonia patients was higher than URTI. Research shows that air pollution can increase the number of resident residents with respiratory diseases and have different effects on different genders, ages and types of respiratory diseases.