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在管线实际运营过程中,影响管线安全的不确定因素很多,如果不能很好地考虑这些不确性因素,可靠性评定结果会产生较大偏差。本文首先对L415、L485、L555管道环焊缝的环焊缝拉伸强度、环焊缝冲击功和环焊缝断裂韧性等材料性能参数进行统计分析。采用常用的正态分布、对数正态分布、指数分布、Gumbel分布和Weibull二参数分布来描述这些参数的分布类型,并对相应的分布类型进行参数估计。其次,在给定的显著水平下,分别利用K-S检验和χ~2检验对分布进行非参数检验。最后,根据检验结果,给出参数的最佳分布类型,这对提高管道环焊缝可靠性分析的准确性有重要作用。
There are many uncertainties that affect the safety of the pipeline during the actual operation of the pipeline. If these uncertainties are not well considered, the result of the reliability assessment will be greatly deviated. In this paper, the performance parameters of tensile strength, girth weld impact energy and fracture toughness of girth weld of L415, L485 and L555 pipeline girth welds were statistically analyzed. The normal distribution, log normal distribution, exponential distribution, Gumbel distribution and Weibull two-parameter distribution are used to describe the distribution types of these parameters, and the parameters of the corresponding distribution types are estimated. Secondly, using the K-S test and χ ~ 2 test to test the distribution at a given level of significance, respectively. Finally, according to the test results, the optimal distribution of parameters is given, which plays an important role in improving the accuracy of pipe girth weld reliability analysis.