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目的探讨天津市细菌性痢疾的季节性特征以及气温对细菌性痢疾发病的影响,为科学制定有关措施与规划提供依据。方法应用圆形分布法和相关回归统计法对天津市2006-2015年细菌性痢疾发病情况和气温数据进行分析。结果天津市细菌性痢疾发病具有明显的季节性,高峰期为5-10月,相关分析表明细菌性痢疾月发病情况与气温呈正相关(r=0.877,P<0.01),通过曲线拟合,以二次函数的拟合度最高(R~2=0.852),模型为y=2.500-0.009x+0.022x2。结论气温对细菌性痢疾的发病有直接影响,年平均气温升高,细菌性痢疾的发病高峰期延长。天津市细菌性痢疾发病季节性特征明显,建立的方程可对细菌性痢疾的月发病率进行预测。
Objective To investigate the seasonal characteristics of bacterial dysentery in Tianjin and the influence of temperature on the incidence of bacterial dysentery, and to provide the basis for scientifically formulating the relevant measures and planning. Methods The circular distribution method and correlation regression method were used to analyze the incidence and temperature data of bacterial dysentery in Tianjin from 2006 to 2015. Results The incidence of bacterial dysentery in Tianjin was obviously seasonal with the peak from May to October. The correlation analysis showed that the monthly incidence of bacterial dysentery was positively correlated with the temperature (r = 0.877, P <0.01). By curve fitting, The quadratic function has the highest fitting degree (R ~ 2 = 0.852) and the model is y = 2.500-0.009x + 0.022x2. Conclusion The temperature has a direct impact on the incidence of bacterial dysentery, the average annual temperature increases, the peak incidence of bacterial dysentery is prolonged. The seasonal characteristics of bacterial dysentery in Tianjin are obvious. The established equation can predict the monthly incidence of bacterial dysentery.