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一、前言害虫年第一代始盛期(以下简称“始盛期”)的预测,传统方法是用历年的始盛期数据进行统计处理,求其均值x及标准差s后,预测常年始盛期为x—s～x+s,早发年始盛期在x—s之前,迟发年始盛期在x+s之后。这种方法,第一,需样本量大;第二,预测的置信度只有68％,精度不高,不便实际采用。本文应用灰色系统理论对始盛期预测问题进行了探讨。本预测方法的精度较高,在害虫始盛期到来之前,可及早作好防治准
I. Preface The prediction of the pest first generation (hereinafter referred to as the “initial period”) is based on the statistical analysis of the data at the beginning of the perennial period. After obtaining the mean x and standard deviation s, the perennial The peak period is x-s ~ x + s, the onset of early onset is before x-s, and the late onset is after x + s. This method, first, requires a large sample size; secondly, the confidence level of the prediction is only 68%, and the accuracy is not high, which is inconvenient for actual use. In this paper, the gray system theory is used to study the forecasting problems during the initial stage. The accuracy of this prediction method is high, so as to prevent and control quasi-as early as possible before the pests start-up period