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考虑到中间品贸易带来的复杂国际分工特征,本文构建全球区域间投入产出模型考察了1996-2009年各国最终需求通过直接途径和间接途径对我国碳排放的诱发量和诱发系数,并对整体诱发量变化区分生产端和需求端的五类影响因素变动进行了分时段分国别的结构分解分析.研究发现:国外最终需求通过中间品贸易渠道而间接诱发的中国碳排放越来越大,且欧美和东亚国家最终需求有不同特征的诱发效应.期间,可反映生产环节和消费环节中间品贸易隐含碳的经济技术效应和国外最终需求结构效应是整个诱发量变动的最大推手.分国别看欧盟和美国的贡献最大,分阶段看入世后各效应变化更为显著.
Taking into account the complex international division of labor characteristics brought by the trade in intermediate goods, this paper constructs a global inter-regional input-output model to examine the amount of carbon monoxide induced and induced by the direct and indirect final demand of each country in 1996-2009, The change of the overall evoked volume is divided into five periods and the other structural changes are analyzed separately.The research shows that China’s carbon emissions indirectly induced by the final demand of foreign countries through the intermediate trade channels are increasing, And the final demand in Europe, the United States and East Asian countries have different characteristics of the induced effects during the period, can reflect the production and consumption of intermediate products trade carbon neutral economic and technological effects and the final structure of the demand and foreign demand is the largest driver of changes in the total incentive. Do not look at the EU and the United States contributed the most, see the stage by stage changes in the effects of the more significant.