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利用长江中下游地区1961-2011年气象数据和1981-2011年一季稻生育期资料,采用线性回归方法分析了一季稻高温热害危险性的时空分布及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:(1)1961-1993年7,8月份平均气温显著下降(P<0.05),近50年来5,9,10月的平均气温极显著增高(P<0.01);(2)湖北省东部、安徽省西南部是一季稻高温热害危险性的高值区,江苏省、浙江省和湖北省西北部是其低值区。20世纪60年代和21世纪初热害发生最为频繁,危险性相应最大;(3)一季稻高温热害危险性与7-8月最高气温和平均气温存在极显著的正相关关系(P<0.01),危险性随着最高气温和平均气温的升高呈现出先慢后快的增大,分别以31℃和26.5℃为临界变化温度。因此,不同区域应根据各自危险性特征安排适宜的播种期,并选用合适的品种类型。
Based on the meteorological data from 1961 to 2011 in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the data of the growing season of the first crop of rice from 1981 to 2011, the spatio-temporal distribution of the thermal risk of high temperature in a season of rice and its response to climate change were analyzed by linear regression. The results showed that: (1) The average temperature dropped significantly in July and August from 1961 to 1993 (P <0.05), and the average temperature in May, September and October in the past 50 years was significantly higher (P <0.01); (2) The eastern part and southwestern part of Anhui Province are high value areas where high temperature and high temperature thermal damage to rice is a hot spot. Jiangsu, Zhejiang and the northwestern part of Hubei are the low value areas. In the 1960s and early 2000s, the heat was the most frequent and the most dangerous. (3) There was a significant positive correlation between the high temperature heat hazard and the highest temperature and the average temperature in July-August (P <0.01) ), The danger increases slowly and rapidly with the increase of the maximum temperature and the average temperature, respectively, at 31 ℃ and 26.5 ℃ as the critical temperature. Therefore, different regions should arrange appropriate sowing dates according to their respective risk characteristics and select the appropriate type of breed.