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应用最大熵算法模型(Max Ent)和地理信息系统(Arc GIS)软件,结合塔里木沙拐枣(Calligonum roborovskii A.Los.)、库尔勒沙拐枣(Calligonum kuerlese Z.M.Mao)、英吉沙沙拐枣(Calligonum yingisaricum Z.M.Mao)、若羌沙拐枣(Calligonum ruoqiangense Liou f.)等四种沙拐枣的现有地理分布记录和19个生物气候变量,预测它们在中国的潜在分布区,并分析其主导气候因子。结果显示:1)塔里木沙拐枣的潜在适生区集中在塔里木盆地及甘肃、内蒙和青海部分地区;若羌沙拐枣的潜在适生区集中在若羌、且末、吐鲁番等较干旱地区;库尔勒沙拐枣的潜在适生区集中在北疆的克拉玛依,东疆的吐鲁番和哈密地区,南疆的库尔勒、喀什、和田等地区;英吉沙沙拐枣的潜在适生区集中在北疆的精河、东疆的吐鲁番、南疆的喀什等地区。2)Max Ent模型对塔里木沙拐枣、库尔勒沙拐枣、英吉沙沙拐枣、若羌沙拐枣等四种沙拐枣潜在分布区的预测精度都很高,AUC值都大于99.5%。3)影响四种沙拐枣分布概率的主要气候因素是春夏多雨季的降水量,其次是冬季的降雪量及最低温。上述研究结果对于适生区开展四种沙拐枣的野生抚育、种植区划及引种栽培具有重要的指导意义。
The Max Ent and Arc GIS softwares were used in combination with Calligonum roborovskii A.Los., Calligonum kuerlese ZMMao, Calligonum yingisaricum ZMMao and Calligonum ruoqiangense Liou f. and their bio-climatic variables, and predicted their potential distribution areas in China and analyzed their dominant climate factor. The results showed that: 1) Potential suitable areas for Calligonum orientalis were concentrated in the Tarim Basin and parts of Gansu, Inner Mongolia and Qinghai; if the potential habitats of Qiongzao jujube were concentrated in the areas of Ruoqiang, Qiemo, Turpan and other arid areas Potential suitable areas for Curcuma longa are mainly located in Karamay in the north of Xinjiang, Turpan and Hami area in the east Xinjiang, Korla, Kashgar and Hetian in the south of Xinjiang, Jinghe, Turpan, Dongjiang, Kashi and other areas in southern Xinjiang. 2) Max Ent model predicts the potential distributions of four species of A. jujubae, such as Calligonum orientalis, Korla sand jujuba, Yingjishazao jujube and Ruoshaozao jujube, with high AUC values greater than 99.5%. 3) The main climatic factors affecting the distribution probability of four species of Caragana korshinskii are the precipitation in spring and summer rainy season, followed by the snowfall in winter and the lowest temperature. The results of the above study have important guiding significance for carrying out the wild tending, planting zoning and introduction and cultivation of four species of Chinese cabbage Caragana korshinskii in the suitable area.