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运用灰色系统理论中的关联分析方法,对浙江省舟山市海洋渔业劳动力的组成结构和捕捞产量的发展动态进行了关联分析,在此基础上对2014~2018年舟山市海洋渔业劳动力和捕捞产量进行了趋势预测。关联分析结果显示,与舟山市海洋渔业劳动力结构的综合关联度大小依次为:海洋捕捞劳动力>海洋其他劳动力>水产品加工劳动力>海水养殖劳动力,说明舟山市的海洋渔业仍以海洋捕捞为主,海水养殖业的规模相对还较小。模型预测结果显示,2014~2018年舟山海洋渔业劳动力人数为6.34×104~7.23×104人,海洋渔业劳动力数量呈下降趋势;海洋捕捞产量在102.65×104~105.23×104t,产量年下降率约为0.6%。文章通过对实证结果进行评析,建议加快调整舟山市海洋渔业产业结构,合理配置海洋渔业人力资源结构,积极引导海洋渔业劳动力转产转业,从而实现海洋渔业健康持续发展。
Based on the gray system theory, the paper analyzes the composition of marine fisheries and the development of fishing yield in Zhoushan City, Zhejiang Province. Based on this, the paper analyzes the labor force and fishing production of marine fishery in Zhoushan City from 2014 to 2018 Trend Forecast. The results of correlation analysis show that the overall correlation degree with the structure of marine fishery labor in Zhoushan City is as follows: marine fishing labor force> other marine labor force> aquatic products processing labor force> mariculture labor force, indicating that the marine fishery in Zhoushan City is still dominated by marine fishing, The size of the mariculture industry is relatively small. The results of model prediction showed that the number of marine fishery labors in Zhoushan from 2014 to 2018 was 6.34 × 104-7.23 × 104, the number of marine fisheries decreased, and the marine fishing output was 102.65 × 104-105.23 × 104t. The annual decline rate was about 0.6%. Through the analysis of the empirical results, the paper suggests that the industrial structure of marine fisheries in Zhoushan should be speed up and the structure of human resources in marine fisheries should be rationally allocated so that the labors of marine fisheries can be converted into jobs in a timely manner so that the healthy and sustained development of marine fisheries can be achieved.