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目前在害虫预报的统计方法中,大多是对环境因子进行分析,找出与害虫发生关系密切的环境因子,通过统计分析,建立回归方程,再根据未来环境因子的变化以预测未来害虫发生情况。在长期历史进程中,害虫的发生受到周围环境的影响,在环境因子的综合作用下,随着时间的推移表现出一定的变化规律,即呈现出时间序列变化。因此,可以应用时间序列分析的方法,去找出害虫发生动态的自身变化规律,以预报未来害虫的发生情况。本文应用周期分析中的方差分析法预报江汉平原棉区1987—1990年各代红铃虫的发生数量。
At present, most of the statistical methods for pest forecasting are to analyze the environmental factors and find out the environmental factors closely related to the pests. Through statistical analysis, the regression equation is established, and the future pest occurrence is predicted according to the future environmental factors. In the course of long history, the occurrence of pests is influenced by the surrounding environment. Under the combined effect of environmental factors, the occurrence of pests shows some regular changes over time, that is, time series changes. Therefore, the method of time series analysis can be applied to find out the dynamics of pests themselves and predict the occurrence of future pests. In this paper, variance analysis of periodic analysis was used to forecast the occurrence of pink bollworm from 1987 to 1990 in Jianghan plain cotton area.