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为准确、快捷地解决在复杂系统中的可靠性分配问题,在基于最小割集的可靠性分配方法的基础上建立了基于最小径集的系统故障概率分配模型。该模型的分配思想不是对系统所有的单元都进行分配,而是选择最有可能导致系统发生故障的单元进行分配。最小径集分配法只需对最小径集中的基本事件直接进行分配计算,从而大幅度减少了中间计算工作量。它的另一个突出优点是能提供多个可选择的分配方案,因为每一个最小径集都代表1种分配方案。根据安全系统工程的优化思想,提出了不可靠度分配方案的选择原则:在基本事件数相同的最小径集中选择概率较大的最小径集;在概率接近的最小径集中选基本事件数较少的最小径集。对于最小径集中基本事件的分配,根据概率重要度来分配是合理的,因为重要度越大的基本事件对系统的影响就越大,分配的概率就应该越小。通过矿井火灾事故树的举例,进一步描述了基于最小径集的系统故障概率分配方法的定量计算过程。研究表明,基于最小径集的系统故障概率分配法是工作量最小的分配方法,还可以进行分配方案的比较选择。
In order to solve the problem of reliability distribution in complex systems accurately and quickly, a probability distribution model of system failure based on minimum path set is established based on the method of reliability allocation based on minimum cut sets. Instead of allocating all the cells in the system, the idea of the model is to allocate the cells most likely to cause the system to fail. The minimum path allocation method only needs to directly allocate the basic events in the minimum path set, thus greatly reducing the intermediate calculation workload. Another prominent advantage is its ability to provide multiple alternative distribution schemes because each smallest set of radii represents a single distribution scheme. According to the optimization idea of safety system engineering, the principle of selection of unreliability distribution scheme is proposed: the minimum probability set with the same number of basic events is selected; the minimum probability set is selected with the minimum probability set The smallest diameter set. For the distribution of basic events of minimum path concentration, it is reasonable to allocate according to probability importance, because the bigger the importance event is, the bigger the impact on the system is, and the smaller the probability of allocation is. Through the example of mine fire accident tree, the quantitative calculation of probability distribution of system failure based on the minimum path set is further described. The research shows that the probability distribution method of system failure based on the minimum path set is the least workload allocation method, and the comparison and selection of allocation schemes can also be carried out.