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文章基于持久收入假说和盖尔顿收入均值模型,梳理税收对收入流动性的影响机理,利用动态面板系统GMM和面板有序Logistic回归模型,分析多维收入流动性与税收政策之间的联动作用机制。研究发现:(1)税收负担是影响城镇居民绝对和相对收入流动的主要原因之一,但其作用程度受到各地区家庭人口结构的影响。地区平均家庭就业人口少于2人时,减税政策能够增加地区绝对收入的流动性,但降低了地区收入位次向上移动的概率,这一结果与家庭就业人口为2人及以上的地区相反。(2)个人所得税费用扣除标准占家庭人均月收入的比重高的地区,其绝对收入的流动性和收入位次向上移动的概率均低于其他省份。(3)历年个人所得税改革对提高绝对收入流动性的正向效应较为显著。此外,劳动力受教育年限、收入来源结构、产业结构及城市化程度等因素对收入流动性的影响也呈现出阶段性和异质性。这意味着税收制度设置应凸显家庭及地区的特征因素,注重横向和纵向公平课税原则,促进居民收入区域间的流动,降低收入固化程度,实现收入分配的动态均衡。
Based on the long-run income hypothesis and the Galton’s average income model, the paper sorts out the mechanism of revenue impact on income liquidity, and uses the dynamic panel system GMM and panel orderly Logistic regression model to analyze the linkage mechanism between multi-dimensional income liquidity and tax policy . The findings are as follows: (1) The tax burden is one of the main reasons that affect the absolute and relative income flows of urban residents, but the degree of its effect is affected by the family structure of the population in all regions. When the average family employment population in a region is less than 2, the tax reduction policy can increase the liquidity of absolute income in the region, but reduce the probability of moving upward the income level in the region. This result is opposite to that of the region where the employed population is two or more . (2) Whereas the deduction standard of personal income tax accounts for the higher proportion of the monthly income of the average person in the household, the absolute income is lower in probability of upward mobility and income rank upward than that of other provinces. (3) The positive effect of personal income tax reforms over the years on improving the absolute income liquidity is significant. In addition, the influence of the labor force’s years of education, income source structure, industrial structure and degree of urbanization on income liquidity has also shown a stage and heterogeneity. This means that the tax system should be set up to highlight the characteristics of the family and the region, focusing on horizontal and vertical fair taxation, to promote the flow of income among the residents, reduce the income of curing, to achieve dynamic balance of income distribution.