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目的分析和预测广州市儿童医疗资源需求,为科学制订广州市儿童医疗配置规划提供理论依据。方法运用时间序列分析方法建模,并预测广州市2013至2020年活产数。用2010年广州市0~14岁儿童数占2010年及之前14年活产数累加值的比例,分别乘以2001至2015年和2006至2020年累计预测活产数,预测2015和2020年广州市常住0~14岁儿童数。再根据标准资源配置预测广州市2015和2020年儿童医疗服务资源的需求。结果预计广州市儿科开放床位,2015年达到9 060张,需新增床位5 476张;2020年达到14 550张,需新增床位10 966张方能满足需求。相应的,2015年至少需增加儿科专科医生966人,儿科专科护士2 338人;至2020年至少需拥有儿科专科医生2 598,儿科专科护士5 197人。结论 广州市未来几年的儿童医疗服务资源需求将成倍增加。因此应发展有层次的儿童医疗服务体系。从规划上加强妇幼卫生资源整合,引导和推动不同服务需求的人群,向提供不同层次服务的机构分流,并合理考虑儿科专科医院的建设和布点。
Objective To analyze and predict the demand for children’s medical resources in Guangzhou and provide a theoretical basis for the scientific planning of children’s medical allocation in Guangzhou. Methods The method of time series analysis was used to model and predict the live births in Guangzhou from 2013 to 2020. By multiplying the cumulative projected live births from 2001 to 2015 and from 2006 to 2020 by the ratio of the number of children aged 0-14 in Guangzhou to the cumulative value of live births in 2010 and prior to 2010 in Guangzhou in 2010, City resident number of children aged 0 to 14. According to the standard allocation of resources in Guangzhou in 2015 and 2020 to predict the needs of children’s medical services resources. Results It is estimated that the number of open pediatric beds in Guangzhou will reach 9 060 in 2015, requiring 5 476 new beds; in 2020 it will reach 14 550 and an additional 10 966 beds will be needed to meet the demand. Accordingly, at least 966 pediatricians and 2 338 pediatric nurses should be added in 2015; at least 2 598 pediatricians and 5 197 pediatric nurses will be required by 2020. Conclusion The demand for children’s medical service resources in Guangzhou will double in the next few years. Therefore, we should develop a hierarchy of children’s medical service system. From the planning to strengthen the integration of MCH resources, guide and promote the needs of different groups of people, to provide services at different levels of diversion, and reasonable consideration of the construction and distribution of pediatric specialist hospitals.