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目的探讨应用自回归求和滑动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型预测浦东新区手足口病发病率的可行性。方法基于2010—2015年浦东新区的逐月手足口病发病率,建立最优ARIMA模型,回代预测2015年的手足口病发病率,比较预测值与实际值的差异,并预测2016年的手足口病发病率。结果模型ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,0)_(12)较好拟合了既往手足口病发病率的时间序列,2015年逐月发病率的预测值符合实际值的变动趋势,全年发病率预测值与实际值的相对误差率为1.81%。预测2016年浦东新区手足口病发病率为269.97/10万。结论 ARIMA模型可用于短期预测未来的手足口病发病率。
Objective To explore the feasibility of predicting the incidence of HFMD in Pudong New Area by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Methods Based on monthly incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Pudong New District from 2010 to 2015, the optimal ARIMA model was established and the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease was predicted back to 2015. The differences between predicted and actual values were compared. The incidence of stomatitis. Results The model ARIMA (1,1,1) (1,1,0) _ (12) fits well the time series of the prevalence of hand-foot-mouth disease in recent years. The predictive value of monthly morbidity in 2015 accords with the change of actual value Trend, the annual error rate of the predicted and the actual value of the error rate of 1.81%. The incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Pudong New Area in 2016 is estimated to be 269.97 / 100,000. Conclusion The ARIMA model can be used to predict the incidence of HFMD in the short term.