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农业干旱风险评价是近年来研究热点之一,它不仅是农业干旱风险管理的基础和前提,也是农业干旱风险区划和灾前损失预评估的理论基础。干旱风险受随机性和模糊性等因素的影响,传统的风险评价方法存在这样那样的问题。本文首先基于农业干旱风险理论,从农业干旱致灾因子危险性和承灾体脆弱性两方面分析大连市农业干旱风险,计算大连市2000年-2007年8年的农业干旱风险指数,显示2002年农业干旱风险指数高达4.7366,发生农业旱灾概率最大;然后根据干旱风险指数的结果,构建农业干旱风险综合评价指标体系,应用基于离差最大化的组合赋权法确定指标权重,利用可变模糊法对2002年农业干旱风险进行综合评价,显示大连市2002年农业干旱风险等级为高风险,易发生重度干旱。研究结论表明:本文农业干旱风险的评价方法较可行,计算结果较准确,为区域农业干旱评价提供了一种考虑多因素的综合方法。
Agricultural drought risk assessment is one of the hot spots in recent years. It is not only the foundation and premise of agricultural drought risk management, but also the theoretical basis of agricultural drought zoning and pre-disaster loss pre-assessment. The risk of drought is affected by factors such as randomness and fuzziness. Traditional risk assessment methods have such problems. Based on the theory of agricultural drought risk, this paper analyzes the risk of agricultural drought in Dalian from the risk of agricultural drought hazard and the vulnerability of disaster-bearing body, and calculates the agricultural drought risk index of Dalian in 2000-2007, indicating that in 2002 The risk index of agricultural drought is as high as 4.7366, and the probability of agricultural drought is the highest. Based on the result of drought risk index, a comprehensive evaluation index system of agricultural drought risk is constructed. The weight of indicators is determined by combinatorial weighted method based on maximizing dispersion. Comprehensive assessment of the risk of agricultural drought in 2002 shows that in 2002, the risk level of agricultural drought in Dalian was high risk and serious drought was easy to occur. The conclusion of the study shows that the evaluation method of agricultural drought risk in this paper is more feasible and the calculation result is more accurate, which provides a comprehensive method considering multi-factors for regional agricultural drought assessment.