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根据广西1953～1990年的森林火灾统计数据和南方涛动（SouthernOscillanon简记为SO）自1951-1998年历年逐月实测数据（SOI），运用异常度分析技术，研究了位于中国大西南的广西林区的森林火灾重灾年现象SO异常的响应规律及其时机，发现广西林区出现森林火灾重灾年景的前一年SO异常活跃，全年涛动指数（SOI）异常度为＋1．59，其中前一年的6～7月时段及前一年的10月～次年2月时段，SOI具有持续异常偏高，异常度均大于1．50，规律、信度在93％以上的结论，为进一步揭示中国大西南地区森林火灾重灾年景的规律、成因，科学地预测中国西南林区未来、季森林火灾活动及致灾潜力提供了重要参考和依据。
According to the statistical data of forest fires from 1953 to 1990 in Guangxi and the monthly measured data (SOI) of Southern Oscillanon from SO in 1951-1998, using the anomaly analysis technique, The response law and the timing of abnormal SO in forest fire disaster years in forest area showed that SO was very active the year before last, and annual anomaly of SOI was +1. 59, of which the period from June to July of the previous year and October to February of the following year, SOI has a sustained abnormal high, the abnormality is greater than 1.50, the law, the reliability of 93% or more The conclusions provide an important reference and basis for further revealing the laws and causes of forest disastrous year in Southwest China and scientifically predicting the future and seasonal forest fire activities and disaster potential in Southwest China.