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过去十几年中,房地产行业逐渐发展成为中国国民经济的支柱产业,与此同时,其发展过程中所暴露出来的问题也引起中国政府的极大关注。在需要的时候,中国政府往往会运用各种宏观调控政策干预房地产市场的运行来稳定房价。因此,对这些宏观调控政策有效性的研究就成为一个极为重要的课题。本文基于1998—2008年期间中国31个省市的面板数据,运用格兰杰因果关系检验和面板协整分析方法对中国政府实施的税收、信贷、土地供给政策与中国房价关系进行实证研究,结果表明,以上三种调控政策与房价变动之间均不存在稳定的长期均衡关系,但在短期层面上,税收政策是引致房价波动的格兰杰原因。
Over the past decade, the real estate industry has gradually developed into a pillar industry in China’s national economy. At the same time, the problems exposed in the development process have also drawn great attention from the Chinese government. When needed, the Chinese government often uses various macro-control policies to intervene in the operation of the real estate market to stabilize housing prices. Therefore, the study of the effectiveness of these macro-control policies has become an extremely important issue. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 1998 to 2008, the paper uses Granger causality test and panel cointegration analysis to study the relationship between taxation, credit and land supply policies implemented by the Chinese government and China’s housing prices. The results It shows that there is no stable long-term equilibrium relationship between the above three control policies and housing price changes. However, on the short-term, the tax policy is the Granger cause of housing price fluctuations.