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以渭河流域干支流 22 个气象站点 1960—2015 年的日降水资料采用 Gumbe-Hougaard、Frank 和 Clayton Copula函数分别构造干旱历时和干旱烈度、干旱历时和烈度峰值以及干旱烈度和烈度峰值之间的二维关系,从而对渭河流域 1960—2015 年的干旱特性进行分析。结果表明,二维 Archimedean Copula 函数可很好地用来描述干旱多变量的联合概率分布,且拟合效果较好;总的来说渭河流域干旱趋势明显,干旱严重程度与干旱历时的变化趋势均不显著,发生较长时期持续干旱的频率高、重现期短,因此当地相关单位应加强干旱的预报和管理。
Based on the daily precipitation data of 22 meteorological stations in the Weihe River basin from 1960 to 2015, Gumbe-Hougaard, Frank and Clayton Copula functions were used to construct the drought duration and drought intensity, drought duration and intensity peak, and the drought intensity and intensity peak respectively Dimensional relationship, so as to analyze the drought characteristics of the Weihe River basin from 1960 to 2015. The results show that the two-dimensional Archimedean Copula function can well be used to describe the joint probability distribution of drought multivariate, and the fitting effect is good. In general, the trend of drought in Weihe River Basin is obvious, and the trend of drought severity and drought duration Not significant, the occurrence of persistent drought in a relatively long period of time is high and the recurrence period is short, so the relevant local units should strengthen the forecast and management of drought.