根据有关客运专线运量预测方法,预测北京到上海2012年的客运基线运量,京沪高速铁路建成运营后的转移运量、诱发运量。预测分析表明,京沪高速铁路通车运营后将会产生69.68%的转移运量和30.32%的诱发运量,理论上有可能转移京沪间民航85.77%的趋势客运量。 According to the traffic volume forecasting method for passenger dedicated lines, the baseline traffic volume of Beijing-Shanghai passenger traffic in 2012 is predicted, and the traffic volume after the completion of the operation of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway will be induced to induce traffic. The forecast analysis shows that the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway will have a 69.68% transfer capacity and a 30.32% inducement capacity after the opening of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, and it is theoretically possible to divert 85.77% of the trend passenger traffic volume between Beijing and Shanghai.