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基于中国集中供暖线和Moran I指数图将我国省域划分成南、北两个区域,通过建立空间计量模型,对影响生活消费的人均碳排放量影响因素及影响大小进行定量分析。同时根据Kaya恒等式及现有文献将驱动因素分解成能源结构、能源利用率、居民生活水平三个因素,外加可能对碳排放有影响区域人口密度。结果表明:能源结构和居民生活水平分别是影响南北方地区生活碳排放的主要因素。南方地区的空间效应显著而北方不显著,所以优化居民能源消费结构,采取地区空间联动性的合作治理对减少南方地区生活消费人均碳排放量具有十分重要的作用。而对于北方地区则应把政策重心放在协调居民生活水平和人均碳排放量上,优化地区环境库兹涅茨曲线。
Based on the Chinese central heating line and the Moran I index map, the province is divided into two regions in South and North China. The spatial econometric model is established to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors and influencing factors on per capita carbon emissions that affect living consumption. At the same time, according to the Kaya identity and the existing literature, the driving factors are decomposed into three components: energy structure, energy efficiency and living standard, plus population density in areas that may affect carbon emissions. The results show that energy structure and living standard are the main factors that affect the carbon emissions in the northern and southern regions respectively. The spatial effect in the south is significant but the north is not significant. Therefore, optimizing the energy consumption structure of residents and adopting cooperative management in regional spatial linkage plays an important role in reducing per capita carbon emissions of living consumption in southern areas. For the north, however, the focus of policy should be on coordinating residents’ living standards and carbon emissions per capita, and optimizing the regional environmental Kuznets Curve.