利用历年稻飞虱田间定时观测密度资料，建立多个白背稻虱、褐稻虱和混合种群密度的积分自回归中长期数量预测模型，选择其中优秀模型参加实际运用效果很好。模型不仅生物学意义明显，而且预测值与实测值误差均在一级以内，预报应验率在７０％以上 Based on the time-observed density data of rice planthoppers in the past years, we established a long-term and long-term quantitative prediction model for integral numbers of whitebacked planthopper, brown planthopper and mixed population density, and selected excellent models to participate in the practical application. The model not only has obvious biological significance, but also the error between the predicted value and the measured value is within one level, and the prediction rate of the prediction is above 70%