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粮食价格是中国粮食安全的重要因素,而国际粮食价格又对中国粮食价格及CPI的影响越来越大,其主要传导渠道是进口和期货市场。回顾2011年,受欧债危机和美国债务上限问题的影响,国际粮食价格大起大落,展望2012年,一方面,全球经济复苏缓慢,经济下行风险较大。欧债危机存在恶化风险、美国经济“温和”复苏以及新兴经济体经济增速放缓,国际宏观大环境给粮食价格带来了一定的下行压力。但是,从另一角度来看,全球粮食需求逐年提高,供需保持紧平衡,再加上极端气候和投机资本的因素,全球流动性充足。综合分析两方面的影响,认为2012年国际粮食价格仍有上行空间。
Food prices are an important factor in food security in China. However, the impact of international grain prices on food prices and CPI in China is also growing. Their main channels of transmission are the import and futures markets. Recalling that in 2011, under the influence of the debt crisis in Europe and the debt ceiling of the United States, the international grain prices fluctuated sharply. Looking forward to 2012, on the one hand, the global economic recovery will be slow and the downside risks to the economy will be greater. There is a risk of deteriorating the European debt crisis, the recovery of the U.S. economy and the slowdown of economic growth in the emerging economies. The international macro-environment has brought downward pressure on food prices. However, from another perspective, global food demand has been rising year by year, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand. Coupled with the factors of extreme climate and speculative capital, the global liquidity is abundant. Comprehensive analysis of the impact of both, that the international food prices in 2012 there is still room for upward mobility.