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针对水上交通突发事件应急响应的资源需求问题,提出基于案例推理(CBR)的资源需求预测方法。首先,通过分析水上交通突发事件范围和近年来长江干线发生的历史案例,在保证案例完整性和有利于提高检索效率的前提下,提取案例的特征属性,定义案例的结构化表示框架,并讨论水上突发事件应急响应资源需求的特点和内容。然后,根据事件信息的属性类型,定义不同的相似度计算方法,确定案例检索过程中的属性权重,采用最邻近法计算全局相似度,求解资源需求预测结果。案例分析表明,案例2与目标案例的相似度最高,经专家对其资源调用情况进行修正后,作为资源需求预测的结果。
Aiming at the resource requirement of emergency response to water traffic accidents, this paper proposes a resource demand forecasting method based on case-based reasoning (CBR). First of all, by analyzing the scope of emergencies in water transport and the historical cases of the Yangtze River Route in recent years, under the premise of ensuring the completeness of the case and improving the retrieval efficiency, the characteristic attributes of the case are extracted and the structured representation framework of the case is defined. Discusses the characteristics and content of the emergency response resource requirements for emergencies. Then, according to the attribute types of event information, different similarity calculation methods are defined, the weight of attributes in case retrieval process is determined, the global similarity is calculated by nearest neighbor method, and the resource demand forecasting result is solved. Case studies show that Case 2 has the highest degree of similarity with the target case and is revised as a result of the resource demand forecast by experts after its resource calls are amended.