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１ 引言 设备诊断技术主要解决的问题是： ①监测设备的运行状态，判断是否处于正常； ②积累和建立设备运行状态的数据库，为维修提供科学依据； ③诊断设备异常（故障）的部位、原因和程度； ④运行状态的趋势分析与预测预报。 因此，设备运行状态变化的趋势分析和预测预报是
1 Introduction The main problems that the equipment diagnosis technology solves are: ① monitoring the running status of the equipment and judging whether it is in normal condition; ② accumulating and establishing a database of equipment running status to provide a scientific basis for maintenance; ③ the location of the abnormal equipment (fault) And degree; ④ trend analysis and prediction of operational status. Therefore, trend analysis and forecasting of equipment operation status change are