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中国的社会经济能否成功地从一个计划体制的工业和农业经济转型为知识经济,关系到中国能否实现第三步走的战略目标。发达高收入国家是在完成了工业化、城市化和服务业化的条件下进入知识化时代的。但是,绝大多数发展中国家,包括中国,是在远没有完成改造传统农业,实现工业化和城市化,服务业化发展水平比较低下的条件下面临知识化挑战的。对中国而言,可能有两种选择:一是延续先行国家走过的路,先工业化再服务业化,进而知识化;另一种是并行促进三种社会转型,即同步推进向工业社会、服务业社会和知识业社会的转型。
Whether China’s social economy can be successfully transformed from a planned industrial and agricultural economy to a knowledge-based economy is a question of whether China can achieve its strategic goal of the third step. The developed and high-income countries have entered the era of knowledge-based economy under the conditions of industrialization, urbanization and service-oriented development. However, most developing countries, including China, face the challenge of knowledge-basedization under the conditions of relatively low level of transformation of traditional agriculture, industrialization and urbanization, and service-oriented development. For China, there may be two options: one is to extend the path taken by the pioneering countries, serve the first industrialization and then the service-oriented, and then the knowledge-based; the other is to promote three types of social transformations in parallel, that is, advance simultaneously to the industrial society, Service Society and Knowledge Society.