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商品期货具有价格发现的功能,随着我国期货市场品种种类的不断增加和市场参与程度的不断提高,商品期货指标与现货市场的关联度显著提高,已经能够比较有效地反映市场供求关系的变化情况和趋势。消费价格指数的编制基于已经形成的商品价格,而商品期货价格指数是对商品价格的预期,因此,可以将消费价格指数理解为经济系统的历史指标,而将商品期货价格指数理解为经济的先行指标。消费价格指数的持续上升会引致对商品未来价格预期的提高,刺激商品期货价格指数的提高;反之,商品期货价格指数的提高,表明对相关商品价格预期的提高,也会导致相关商品价格的进一步提升,在一定程度上引致消费价格指数的提高。商品期货价格指数所包含的多种基础商品价格的波动可传导至消费者价格指数,而消费者价格指数作为宏观经济系统运行(如通货膨胀率等)的重要监测指标,会直接影响到国家宏观经济政策的制定和决策,进而影响到与居民生活有关的商品及劳务价格的波动。
Commodity futures have the function of price discovery. With the variety of futures markets in our country and the continuous increase of market participation, the correlation between commodity futures indices and spot market has been significantly improved, which has been able to reflect the changes in market supply and demand more effectively And trend. The compilation of CPIs is based on the prices of commodities that have already been formed and the commodity futures price index is the expectation of commodity prices. Therefore, consumer price index can be understood as a historical indicator of the economic system, while the commodity futures price index can be interpreted as economic precedence index. The continuous rise of consumer price index will lead to the expectation of future price increase of commodities to stimulate the rise of the price index of commodity futures. On the contrary, the increase of the price index of commodity futures indicates that the expected increase of the price of related commodities will lead to further price rise of relevant commodities To some extent, this has led to an increase in the consumer price index. The volatility of the prices of various basic commodities covered by the commodity futures price index can be transmitted to the consumer price index which, as an important monitoring indicator of the operation of the macroeconomic system (such as the inflation rate), will directly affect the macroeconomic status of the country The formulation and decision-making of economic policies will in turn affect the fluctuation of the prices of goods and services related to the life of residents.