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考虑CO2在大气中的概率分布特征以及在混凝土中的扩散过程,结合大气中时变温度效应模型,基于增量碳化过程,考虑城乡环境差异,改进了混凝土结构碳化深度预测模型。改进模型和实测数据对比分析验证了基于增量过程的改进碳化深度预测模型更合理,更能够反映桥梁真实碳化过程。由于二氧化碳浓度、温度环境以及材料参数的分布具有随机变异性,建立了概率分析模型计算混凝土结构将来100 a内大气环境下的腐蚀开始概率和腐蚀发生比例,比较分析了参数完全相关(ρ=1)和完全不相关(ρ=0)条件下的腐蚀开始概率。计算表明服役100 a后ρ=0时的腐蚀开始概率比ρ=1时高13.6%。
Considering the probability distribution of CO2 in the atmosphere and the diffusion process in concrete, combined with the time-varying temperature effect model in the atmosphere, the carbonation depth prediction model of concrete structure is improved based on the incremental carbonization process and the urban-rural environmental differences. The comparison between the improved model and the measured data verifies that the improved carbonation depth prediction model based on incremental process is more reasonable and can reflect the real carbonation process of the bridge. Since the distribution of carbon dioxide concentration, temperature environment and material parameters have random variability, the probability analysis model is established to calculate the probability of corrosion initiation and the proportion of corrosion in the atmospheric environment in the future 100 years. The parameters are completely correlated (ρ = 1 ) And completely irrelevant (ρ = 0) under the conditions of corrosion initiation probability. Calculations show that the corrosion initiation probability at ρ = 0 after service for 100 years is 13.6% higher than that at ρ = 1.