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对中国房地产业而言,央行121文件的出台,其实是鼓励其他融资渠道,让风险不集中在银行。目前全国房地产负债率为76％,而国外只有20％-30％。因此适当减少贷款比重,鼓励直接融资,让有钱的老百姓、上市公司、企业集团投资到房地产中去,改变房地产信贷间接融资为主的状况。 据统计,1998年,商业银行房地产开发贷款余额为2680亿元,2002年达到6616亿元,年均增长25.3％;截至2003年4月,房地产贷款余额达到18357亿元,占商业银行各项贷款余额的17.6％。房地产贷款快速增长已近极限,收紧银根也在情理之中。 央行货币政策委员会在2003年第二季度货币执行情况报告上提到,“在规范房地产信贷的同时,人民银行将配合有关部门为开发商开辟多种融资方式,特别是股权融资方式”。这是央行在121文件之后首次为开发商困窘的资金来源指明“方向”。 房地产信托、投资基金尤其是以外资为支撑点的基金、房地产企业债券等资金,可望成为房地产融资在银行信贷、开发商自有资金之外的“第三条道路”。
For China’s real estate industry, the promulgation of the Central Bank’s 121 document actually encourages other financing channels so that risks are not concentrated in banks. At present, the national real estate debt ratio is 76%, while only 20% -30% abroad. Therefore, the appropriate proportion of loans should be reduced, direct financing should be encouraged, rich people, listed companies and enterprise groups should be invested in real estate, and indirect financing of real estate loans should be changed. According to statistics, in 1998, the balance of real estate development loans of commercial banks was 268 billion yuan, reaching 661.6 billion yuan in 2002, an average annual increase of 25.3%; as of April 2003, the real estate loan balance reached 1.8357 trillion yuan, accounting for various loans of commercial banks The balance of 17.6%. The rapid growth of real estate loans is nearing the limit, and it is also reasonable to tighten the monetary policy. The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee mentioned in the second quarter 2003 monetary performance report that “while standardizing real estate credit, the People’s Bank will cooperate with relevant departments to open up a variety of financing methods for developers, especially for equity financing.” This is the first time that the PBOC has pointed out the “direction” for developers’ embarrassing sources of funding after Document 121. Real estate trusts and investment funds, especially funds backed by foreign funds and real estate corporate bonds, are expected to become the “third road” to real estate financing beyond bank loans and developers’ own funds.