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对经济周期的准确判断是预测经济走势及决策的基础。关于经济周期阶段的划分目前主要采用美国国家经济研究局(N B E R)的方法,划分为收缩(衰退)——谷底——扩张(增长)——峰值四个阶段。根据NBER判断,美国本次周期始于2008年1月的衰退,2009年6月跌入谷底,2009年7月进入扩张至今。但在经济分析中有必要将扩张阶段进一步划分为复苏——经济从谷底开始扩张的第一阶段,随后才是稳定增长——扩张的第二阶段。但关于复苏阶段的终结及状
Accurate judgment of the economic cycle is the basis for forecasting economic trends and making decisions. At present, the division of the economic cycle stage mainly adopts the method of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and is divided into four stages of contraction (recession) - trough - expansion (growth) - peak. According to NBER’s judgment, the U.S. cycle started in January 2008 with the recession falling to its lowest level in June 2009 and its expansion in July 2009. However, in economic analysis, it is necessary to further divide the expansion phase into recovery - the first phase in which the economy expands from the trough and then the steady growth - the second phase of expansion. But the end of the recovery phase and shape