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按拱坝的分载位移法分析拱坝。以拱梁交点的各类复合内力做为交点截面破坏的判据。由截面各类复合内力的极限状态建立截面破坏的各类功能函数，导出了各类功能函数的梯度向量计算公式，以及破坏概率计算的迭代、递推公式。由拱坝截面的破坏进行拱坝超静定次数的降维。由破坏截面的累集寻找拱坝开裂的轨迹。由破坏截面条件概率的累集得到拱坝破坏轨迹的条件概率向量。
Analysis of Arch Dam by Displacement Displacement Method of Arch Dam. The various types of composite internal forces at the intersections of arch and beam are taken as the criterion of cross-section failure. Various kinds of function functions of cross-section failure are established from the limit states of various types of composite internal forces, and the formula of gradient vector for various kinds of function functions and the iterative and recursive formula of failure probability calculation are derived. The reduction of the number of overdetermined times of arch dam by the failure of cross section of arch dam. Finding the Crack of Arch Dam Based on the Accumulation of Damaged Sections. The conditional probability vector of the failure path of the arch dam is obtained from the accumulation of the probability of failure condition.