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心理学对判断预测的研究主要关注预测的偏差及产生原因。判断预测中的偏差有两类:偏见和不一致。偏见主要表现为:趋势阻尼;提高效应;给预测结果增加随机噪音。不一致包括:信息获得导致的不一致;信息加工导致的不一致。偏差的出现一是与信息加工过程有关,二是与序列的特征与呈现方式有关。研究发现提供反馈、分解、组合预测和建议采纳等策略可以增进判断预测的准确性。
Psychological research on the prediction of the main focus of prediction bias and its causes. There are two types of bias in judging a forecast: prejudice and inconsistency. Prejudices are mainly manifested as: trend damping; increase effect; increase random noise to the prediction result. Inconsistencies include: inconsistencies resulting from access to information; inconsistencies caused by information processing. The emergence of bias is related to the process of information processing, the second is related to the characteristics of sequence and presentation. The study found that strategies such as providing feedback, decomposition, portfolio forecasting, and recommended adoption can improve the accuracy of predictive judgments.