论文部分内容阅读
目的探究Richards模型拟合2013-2014年间新疆巴州地区布鲁氏菌病的暴发流行趋势,为制定控制措施提供依据。方法通过单波形Richards模型拟合每月报告的实际累积发病者数量,检测出布鲁氏菌病爆发的拐点,有助于研究干预措施相对于拐点的影响。估计出模型参数和基本再生数R0。结果布鲁氏菌病爆发的拐点为2014年6月至7月之间,早于实施各种预防措施。布鲁氏菌病爆发的基本再生数为R0=1.1207(95%CI:0.6091-1.1379),说明布鲁氏菌病还不能被消除。结论 Richards模型较好的拟合出布鲁氏菌病累积发病者数量,加强控制措施的实施是减少布鲁氏菌病暴发流行的基础。
Objective To explore the Richards model to fit the outbreak trend of brucellosis in Bazhou, Xinjiang during 2013-2014, and to provide evidence for the establishment of control measures. Methods Using the single-waveform Richards model to fit the monthly cumulative reported incidences of brucellosis, the inflection point of brucellosis was examined to help investigate the impact of interventions relative to the inflection point. The model parameters and basic regeneration numbers R0 are estimated. Results The inflexion point for Brucellosis outbreak was between June and July 2014, prior to the implementation of various precautionary measures. The basic reproductive number of brucellosis was R0 = 1.1207 (95% CI: 0.6091-1.1379), indicating that brucellosis could not be eliminated. Conclusion The Richards model fits the cumulative incidence of brucellosis and strengthening the implementation of control measures is the basis for reducing the outbreak of brucellosis.