论文部分内容阅读
使用轨迹数据评价4种不同跟驰类型(类型1~4分别为小汽车跟随小汽车、小汽车跟随货车、货车跟随小汽车、货车跟随货车)对高速公路交织区追尾事故风险的影响.介绍了碰撞时间,并将其作为判断追尾事故风险的替代性安全指标,然后使用高速公路交织区的轨迹数据进行病例对照分析,在不同碰撞时间阈值下建立了3个logistic回归模型用于定量评价不同跟驰类型的影响,并对解释变量进行分析以期研究导致回归模型结果的可能原因.结果表明,当碰撞时间阈值等于2 s时,第3种跟驰类型的追尾事故风险比第1种跟驰类型高3.167倍,而第2种类型和第4种类型的优势比都小于1,该结果代表更安全的状态.对解释变量的分析显示第3种类型拥有最大的速度差和最小的净距,这与交织区车辆运行特征相一致,也是更大追尾事故风险的原因.该研究揭示了高速公路交织区不同跟驰类型追尾事故风险的机理.
Using trajectory data to evaluate the impact of 4 different types of car-following (types 1 to 4, respectively, car-following cars, car-following cars, trucks following cars, trucks following trucks) Collision time as an alternative safety index for judging the accident risk of rear-end collision, and then use the trajectory data of expressway intertwining zone to do case-control analysis. Three logistic regression models were established under different collision time thresholds for quantitative evaluation of different follow-up And the explanatory variables were analyzed in order to study the possible reasons leading to regression model results.The results show that when the collision time threshold is equal to 2 s, the rear-end collision risk of the third following type is lower than that of the first following type High 3.167 times, while the odds ratio of type 2 and type 4 is less than 1, the result represents a safer state.Analysis of explanatory variables shows that type 3 has the largest speed difference and the smallest clearance, This is consistent with the characteristics of vehicle running in the weaving zone and also contribute to the greater risk of rear-end accidents.The study revealed that different car-following types Tail accident risk mechanism.