《江西农业科技》1988年第2期刊出“江西省部分地区1988年稻瘟病预测”以后,陆续有南康、信丰,大余……等13个县要求参加协作组,并提供该县积累多年的、连续的历史病情资料经我们再次运用马尔可夫链、灰色系统、周期分析、自回归模型、移动平均模型、自回归——移动平均混合模型等方法,以及由这些方法适当组合而派生的方法,预测了这些县1988年全年的稻瘟病发生状况,结果如下: Jiangxi Agricultural Science and Technology, 1988, No. 2, published in 1988 in some areas in Jiangxi Province forecast of rice blast, one after another with Nankang, Xinfeng, Dayu ... ... and other 13 counties asked to participate in collaborative group and provide the accumulation of the county Multi-year, continuous history of disease data by us once again using Markov chain, gray system, periodic analysis, autoregressive model, moving average model, autoregressive - moving average mixed model and other methods, and derived from the appropriate combination of these methods The prediction of the status of rice blast in 1988 in these counties was as follows: