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害虫的预测预报按其预测的期限一般可分为短期、中期及长期预测三大类。短期是指预测期限在一个世代以内,如一个或几个虫态的预测;中期则一般为一个或几个世代的季节性预测;长期则为一年以上的预测,苏联法捷耶夫等又将长期预测分为二类,凡预测期限少于五年的称为长期预测,五年以上则称为多年预测。短期和中期预测是为当前防治工作服务的,长期预测则可作为一年或几年后防治计划制定的依据,而多年预测则是为制定植物保护科学研究推广规划或农药的生产配置规划服务的,因为这些规划的实现都不是一年或几个月内所能完成的,而是要靠多年前的准备及合理配置才能实现的。目前我国的五年或十年的规划工作,还都缺乏正规的多年预测的科学依据,更没有定量的多年统计分析,本文仅就多年预测作初步
Prediction and prediction of pests can be generally divided into three categories of short-term, medium-term and long-term forecast according to the forecast period. Short-term refers to the predictive deadline within a generation, such as one or several insect state forecast; the medium period is generally one or more of the seasonal forecast; long-term is more than a year of the forecast, the Soviet Union Fayev and so on Long-term forecasts are grouped into two categories, with long-term forecasts of less than five years and long-term forecasts of more than five years of long-term forecasts. Short-term and medium-term forecasts serve the current prevention and treatment work, while long-term forecasts can serve as a basis for planning for one or more years of prevention and treatment, whereas for many years forecasts are for the planning of plant protection scientific research programs or production planning for pesticides Because the realization of these plans can not be accomplished within a year or a few months but only through the preparation and rationalization of many years ago. At present, China’s five-year or ten-year planning work lacks the scientific basis for formal multi-year prediction, nor does it have a quantitative multi-year statistical analysis.