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在中国加入WTO和改革汇率形成机制之后,经常项目和资本项目双顺差持续大规模扩大,经济出现内外失衡,在此背景下2007年中国发生了一次严重的通货膨胀。经济失衡对价格总水平的影响和国内外经济因素对价格的共同冲击是当前我国价格总水平异常波动的重要特征。本文基于经济全球化体系下经济失衡的背景分析了我国当前价格波动的影响因素,同时利用DOLS方法对这些因素的冲击效应进行了经验研究,在理论分析和经验研究的基础上提出了缓解我国价格总水平出现异常波动压力的短期、中期和长期对策建议。
After China’s accession to the WTO and the reform of the exchange rate mechanism, the double-surpluses of the current account and capital account continued to expand on a large scale and the economy was experiencing internal and external imbalances. In this context, China experienced a serious inflation in 2007. The impact of economic imbalance on the general price level and the common impact of domestic and international economic factors on prices are the important characteristics of the abnormal fluctuations in the general price level in our country. Based on the background of economic imbalances under the economic globalization system, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of the current price volatility in our country. At the same time, it uses DOLS method to empirically study the impact of these factors. Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical research, Short-term, medium-term and long-term solutions to the pressure of abnormal fluctuations at the general level.