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无人机安全问题已经成为航空领域一个亟待解决的难题,坠机事故不但会造成装备和财产损失,而且也会给高技术安全带来巨大风险.在分析相关坠机事故统计的基础上,提出了一种影响无人机安全的事故因素划分原则和方法,建立了无人机事故成因预测的FCM模型.利用FCM的知识表示和推理可以预测出系统达到稳定状态时各因素的状态值,通过关联度计算对事故的影响因素进行排序,得到诱发无人机事故的主要因素.实例验证和分析证明该方法对于无人机事故成因的预测是可行的.
UAV safety has become an urgent problem to be solved in the field of aviation, which not only causes equipment and property losses, but also brings great risks to high-tech safety.Based on the analysis of the statistics of related crash accidents, A principle and method of accident factors affecting the safety of UAV are established and the FCM model of UAV accident prediction is established.Using the FCM knowledge representation and reasoning to predict the state value of each factor when the system reaches the steady state, Correlation calculation is used to rank the influencing factors of accident, and the main factors that cause UAV accidents are obtained.Examples validation and analysis show that this method is feasible to predict the causes of UAV accidents.