为了对采取这样或那样的措施产生的生态后果进行科学预测,现在一般采用两种预测方法——质量及数量方法。第一种方法是在给定“是”、“不是”和变化趋势是“好”、“不好”的可能变化概率的基础上进行逻辑推理研究。这种方法是鉴定评估法。遗憾的是,当在显著的经济利益和假定的生态后果间进行选择时,这种方法就不适宜了。 In order to make scientific predictions of the ecological consequences of taking one or the other of these measures, two prediction methods, quality and quantity, are now commonly used. The first is to conduct a logical reasoning based on the probabilities of change that are “yes”, “no” and the trend is “good” or “bad”. This method is to identify the assessment method. Unfortunately, this approach is not appropriate when choosing between significant economic benefits and assumed ecological consequences.