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适应性概念为可持续性科学领域提供了新的研究思维。论文在总结、梳理适应性内涵,整合相关适应性理论与方法的基础上,提出了基于风险扰动的适应性分析框架,采用风险-适应能力指数评估区域人地系统适应性,将系统适应性分解为风险干扰和适应能力(包括生态、经济、社会能力3个参数)两个维度,从研究区水土流失风险出发,构建系统适应性评价指标体系。通过美国通用土壤流失方程(USLE)与适应性函数模型,分析榆林市水土流失风险以及人地系统适应能力时空演化特征,在系统适应性水平评估基础上,揭示榆林市不同时期人地系统适应性演化的驱动因素。研究结果表明:1)2000—2011年榆林市水土流失风险显著下降,但时空演化明显,到2011年高流失区转移分布于西南部、长城沿线等县域;2)12 a间榆林市系统适应性水平整体呈增高趋势,但空间上出现两极分化,呈现“西北高、东南低”的格局,其中北部县区1在生态、经济和社会子系统能力上明显高于南部,但南部县域适应性水平提升较北部更为明显;3)人地系统适应性演化驱动力由社会经济发展转化为生态环境修复、经济能力增强和社会保障提升的共同作用。
The concept of adaptability provides new research thinking in the field of sustainability science. On the basis of summarizing and combing adaptive connotations and integrating relevant theories and methods of adaptiveness, this paper proposes an adaptive analysis framework based on risk perturbation, and uses the risk-adaptive ability index to evaluate the adaptability of regional human-to-human system, and decomposes the system adaptability For the two dimensions of risk interference and adaptability (including ecological, economic and social capabilities), this paper constructs the index system of system suitability assessment based on the risk of soil erosion in the study area. Based on USLE and fitness function model, the risk of soil and water loss in Yulin City and the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of adaptive capacity of man-earth system were analyzed. Based on the evaluation of system adaptability, the adaptability of man-land system in Yulin City The driving force of evolution. The results show that: 1) The risk of soil and water loss in Yulin City decreased significantly from 2000 to 2011, but the spatial and temporal evolution was obvious. By 2011, the high-loss areas were distributed in the southwestern areas and along the Great Wall; 2) The system adaptability However, there is polarization in space, showing the pattern of “high in the northwest and low in the south”. The northern part of the county 1 is significantly higher in ecological, economic and social subsystems than in the south, but the southern part of the county is adapted The level of sexual enhancement is more obvious than that of the north; 3) The driving force for adaptive evolution of man and land system is transformed from socio-economic development into the joint action of ecological environment restoration, economic ability enhancement and social security promotion.