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采用 GISS Transient B模型和黑河、哈尔滨、长春、沈阳、延吉等 5个样点近 4 0年的逐日气候资料 ,在计算机上生成了我国东北平原未来 10年、 30年和 5 0年的气候渐变情景 ;将 CERES系列模型 (包括大豆、玉米、水稻 3种作物 )在上述各样点不同年份的气候渐变情景下运行 ,并将模拟结果与当前气候条件下的模拟值相比较 ,评价了气候变化及大气 CO2 浓度增长对研究区域作物布局和品种布局的阶段性影响 ;还利用若干农业气候指标 ,结合各样点的气候渐变情景 ,分析了我国冬小麦安全种植北界在研究地区可能出现的地理位移。在此基础上 ,就东北平原未来的作物与品种布局 ,以及能否安全种植冬小麦等提出具体意见 ,供有关部门在制定农业中、远期规划时参考
Based on daily climatological data of GISS Transient B model and nearly 40 years of five samples in Heihe, Harbin, Changchun, Shenyang and Yanji, a climatic gradient of 10 years, 30 years and 50 years in Northeast China is generated on the computer Scenario; CERES series of models (including soybean, corn, rice, three crops) operating in different climate gradient scenarios of different years above, and the simulation results compared with the current climatic conditions simulated values of climate change And the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration on the regional distribution of crop and the distribution of cultivars in different stages of the study. Several agricultural climate indicators were also used to analyze the possible geographic displacements of the northern boundary of the safe planting of winter wheat in China . On this basis, put forward specific opinions on the layout of crops and varieties in the Northeast Plain and the feasibility of planting winter wheat safely for reference by the relevant departments in the formulation of agriculture and long-term planning