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由英国《金属导报》和中国五矿集团公司联合主办的第四届远东钢铁会议暨2006年中国铁矿石会议,3月27日在北京举行。此次会议,与会国内外专家各抒已见,其中北京兰格钢铁信息研究中心主任马忠普就中国钢铁消费发展前景的变化趋势做了专题报告,其中主要内容包括二大方面:一是我国钢材需求增长模式已经发生了重大变化,二是今后几年国内钢材消费需求增幅的演变趋势。一、我国钢材需求增长模式已经发生了重大变化1、国内近两年钢材市场消费增幅已经回落到14%左右。2001-2003年期间我国受投资拉动,钢的消费增幅分别为22.61%、21.99%和25.75%。2004年以后,我国控制投资增长和进出口态势发生了明显变化,中国钢消费增长已连续两年回落在14%-15%左右。2003年进出口钢坯、钢材折合净进口钢3624.5万t。当年国内钢产量22116万t。国内资源总量25740.5万t。2004年进出口钢材、钢坯折合净进口钢1361万t钢。当年国内钢产量28048万t,资源总量29409万t。2004年消费同比增长14.25%。2005年全国累计生产钢34936万t。同比增长24.56%。进口钢材2581万t、钢坯131.41万t;出口钢材2052.26万t、钢坯706.85万t,折合成粗钢进口、出口相抵后全年净出口粗钢12.3万t。根据钢协数据,2005年钢厂库存增加1400万t。2005年国内消费钢资源总量为33524万t。与2004年国内消费钢资源总量294093万t相比表观消费资源总量增加了14%。换一种研究思路看看,2004-2005年中国钢材消费增长水平是多少?按2003年净进口钢3624.5万t计算,2004年的净进口1361万t,相当于减少国内资源2263.5万t。2005年净出口123万t,与2003年相比,相当于减少3636.8万t,两年合计减少钢资源5900.3万t。按两年国内钢产量63287万t计算,相当于平均每年消费国内钢的资源增幅9.32个百分点。
The 4th Far East Steel Conference and the 2006 China Iron Ore Conference co-hosted by Britain’s Metal Herald and China Minmetals Corporation were held on March 27 in Beijing. The meeting, the participating experts at home and abroad have expressed their views, including Beijing Lange Steel Information Research Center Mazhong Pu on the trend of China’s steel consumption development trends made a special report, including the main contents include two aspects: First, China’s steel demand The growth model has undergone major changes, and the second is the evolution of the growth of domestic steel consumption demand in the coming years. First, China’s steel demand growth model has undergone major changes 1, the domestic steel market consumption growth in the past two years has dropped to about 14%. During 2001-2003, China was driven by investment, with steel consumption increasing by 22.61%, 21.99% and 25.75% respectively. After 2004, the situation of controlling investment growth and import and export in our country has undergone significant changes. The growth of China’s steel consumption has dropped by 14% -15% for two consecutive years. Import and export of billet in 2003, steel net imports of steel equivalent to 24,245,000 t. In the same year, the domestic steel output was 221,116,000 tons. The total domestic resources 257405000 t. Import and export of steel in 2004, billet net imports of steel 13.61 million tons of steel. In the same year, the domestic steel output was 280.48 million tons, with a total resource of 294.09 million tons. Consumption in 2004 increased by 14.25% over the same period of last year. In 2005, a total of 349.36 million tons of steel was produced nationwide. An increase of 24.56% over the same period of last year. Imports of steel 25.81 million tons, slabs 1.1341 million tons; exports of steel 20,522,600 tons, 706.85 million tons of billet, converted into crude steel imports, net exports of crude steel after the export offset 123,000 t. According to the Steel Association data, steel mills increased inventories by 14 million tons in 2005. In 2005, the total domestic consumption of steel resources was 335.24 million tons. The total apparent consumption resources increased by 14% compared with the total consumption of 2940.93 million tons of domestic consumption steel in 2004. In other words, we can see from the research ideas that the level of China’s steel consumption growth in 2004-2005 is much. According to the net import steel of 36.245 million tons in 2003, the net import in 2004 was 13.61 million tons, equivalent to 22.665 million tons of reduction of domestic resources. In 2005 net exports of 1.23 million t, compared with 2003, equivalent to a decrease of 36.368 million tons, a total reduction of 59.53 million tons of steel resources in two years. Calculated on the basis of two years of domestic steel output of 632.87 million tons, it is equivalent to 9.32 percentage points increase of the average annual domestic steel consumption.