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从理论上看,房价上涨对工业产出存在成本效应、投资转移效应、关联效应、融资效应和分配效应等,房价上涨对工业产出会产生抑制作用。本文利用省级面板数据进行实证,发现房价上涨对工业产出具有抑制作用,且存在经济发展水平与人均人力资本门限,说明房价上涨对工业产出的抑制作用存在区域差异。为降低房价上涨对工业产出的抑制作用,应从降低工业企业成本、深化工业企业创新体制机制改革着手,并根据各省市区具体情况采取差别化的政策。
Theoretically, rising house prices will have an inhibitory effect on industrial output due to the existence of cost-effective industrial output, investment transfer effect, related effect, financing effect and distribution effect. In this paper, we use the provincial panel data to do empirical research. It is found that the rising of house price has a restraining effect on industrial output, and there exists the level of economic development and the threshold of per capita human capital, indicating that there are regional differences in the inhibitory effect of rising house prices on industrial output. In order to reduce the inhibitory effect of rising house prices on industrial output, we should start with lowering the cost of industrial enterprises, deepening the reform of institutional mechanisms for the innovation of industrial enterprises and adopting differentiated policies based on the specific conditions of each province, city and district.