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目的探讨北京市中暑发病人数与关键气象因子之间的关系,提出适用于该地区的中暑等级气象判据。方法分析北京市海淀区3家医院2009—2011年236例中暑病例的分布特征;以同期逐日13个气象要素资料为基础,派生出当日与前1~4 d各要素的累积平均值及发病前1~4 d各要素值,共117个气象因子。采用相关分析探讨影响中暑的关键气象因子。结果中暑高峰期为6月下旬至8月中旬,男女性中暑高峰年龄均为20~49岁。温度是导致中暑的决定性因子,日均气温、日最高和最低气温、累积平均温度、前期温度均与中暑发病人数呈正相关(P<0.01),其中累积温度效应大于当日及滞后温度效应。累积4 d平均气温(T4)、连续变温天数(TD)、相对湿度、降水对7月和6、8月日均中暑人数均有影响。以T4、降水日(RD)、TD为指标,建立了中暑等级气象判据,7月和6、8月的预报准确率分别为68.8%和70.5%。结论中暑等级气象判据具有较好的拟合效果,可为有关部门及市民提供出行服务指南。
Objective To investigate the relationship between the number of stroke victims and the key meteorological factors in Beijing and to propose the meteorological criterion of sunstroke scale applicable to this area. Methods The distribution characteristics of 236 sunstroke cases from 2009 to 2011 in three hospitals in Haidian District of Beijing were analyzed. Based on the daily 13 meteorological data of the same period, the cumulative mean values of the factors from the previous day to the previous day and the pre-morbidity 1 ~ 4 d each element value, a total of 117 meteorological factors. Correlation analysis was used to explore the key meteorological factors affecting heat stroke. Results The peak period of summer heat stroke was from late June to mid-August. The peak age of both men and women was 20 ~ 49 years old. Temperature was the decisive factor leading to stroke. The mean daily temperature, daily maximum and minimum temperature, cumulative average temperature and pre-temperature were positively correlated with the number of patients with heat stroke (P <0.01). The cumulative temperature effect was greater than the current and delayed temperature effects. Accumulation of 4 d average temperature (T4), continuous variable temperature days (TD), relative humidity, precipitation on July and June, August average daily number of heat stroke have an impact. Based on T4, precipitation date (RD) and TD, the meteorological criterion of heat stroke level was established. The prediction accuracy rates in July and June and August were 68.8% and 70.5% respectively. Conclusions The meteorological criterion of sunstroke level has a good fitting effect and can provide travel guides for relevant departments and citizens.