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根据发达国家经济发展的经验,一个国家居民的消费需求是刺激国民经济增长的根本动力。本文着重分析包括衣食住行等在内的中国居民消费需求结构,并运用1993-2013年的经济数据推算出在整个居民内需结构中,居住消费需求增幅在未来十年较其他居民消费需求大;通过建立向量自回归模型(VAR),检验居民消费中居住消费需求与经济增长的关系。认为未来十年内,居住消费需求将成为促进经济增长的重要因素之一,这也为房地产业的可持续发展提供了一定的客观依据。
According to the economic development experience of developed countries, the consumption demand of residents in a country is the fundamental motivation for stimulating the growth of the national economy. This paper focuses on the analysis of the consumption structure of Chinese residents, including the basic necessities of life, etc., and uses the economic data from 1993 to 2013 to conclude that in the entire domestic demand structure, the growth of residential consumption demand will be greater than that of other residents over the next ten years. Vector autoregressive model (VAR) to test the relationship between residential consumption demand and economic growth. In the next ten years, the demand of residential consumption will become one of the important factors to promote economic growth, which also provides certain objective basis for the sustainable development of the real estate industry.