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通过分析常用的判断房价合理性的指标和模型,发现判断房价合理性的标准有居民可支配收入、投资收益和经济基本面等三个角度,以经济基本面为基准确定标准房价更为合理。通过建立H-P滤波后的个体固定效应回归模型,从时间(1998-2010)和空间(35个省会城市和直辖市)两个维度对我国房价合理性进行实证分析,得到的主要结论有:房价与城市经济基本面存在着稳定的协整关系;大多数城市的住房价格是合理的,说明我国一直持续走高的房价其实是有持续快速发展的经济和不断增加的城市人口作支撑的;我国城市房价偏高的时间节点主要在1998、1999年和2009、2010年两个阶段,前者主要发生在中西部城市,后者主要出现在东部沿海城市,房价偏高或偏低的时间节点和空间节点都与宏观经济政策密切相关。
By analyzing the common indicators and models for judging house price rationality, we find that judging house price rationality has the following three aspects: resident disposable income, investment income and economic fundamentals. It is more reasonable to determine the standard house price based on the economic fundamentals. By establishing a regression model of individual fixed effects after HP filtering, this paper empirically analyzes China’s housing price rationality from two dimensions: time (1998-2010) and space (35 provincial capitals and municipalities directly under the Central Government). The main conclusions are: The economic fundamentals exist a stable co-integration relationship; housing prices in most cities are reasonable, indicating that the housing prices in our country have been continuously rising in fact there is a sustained and rapid development of the economy and the increasing urban population as a support; housing prices in our city High time nodes mainly in 1998, 1999 and 2009, 2010, two stages, the former mainly in the Midwest cities, the latter mainly in the eastern coastal cities, high or low prices of time nodes and space nodes are Macroeconomic policy is closely related.